Locks
NBA (0.5 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies @ Minnesota Timberwolves -12.5 (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 9:00 PM CT on TNT
It seems like the only rationale for this number being where it is would be Minnesota’s back-to-back spot tonight. They didn’t look great last night in Detroit, especially defensively, and the Wolves are just 1-2 ATS on no rest this season. But those defensive issues should clean up quickly against a Memphis team with little to offer on offense.
Obviously Ja Morant is out for the season, but the Grizzlies are also without Desmond Bane for an extended period now. Bane was in the lineup for both previous meetings, which saw the Wolves win by 22 and 24 points in Memphis. So at Target Center where they’ve been so dominant, I’ll back Minnesota to beat up on a bad team again here.
NBA (1 Unit) OKC Thunder @ Utah Jazz Team Total Over 121.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on Bally Sports OKC
Yesterday’s sad situation with Golden State gave the Jazz an unexpected day off here when they would’ve been facing the Thunder on no rest. I think that’s a boost for their already red-hot offense as it guarantees no key players will rest on a back-to-back spot. The OKC defense has not looked good at all on the road lately, allowing 125.5 PPG in their January road games. This Jazz squad has scored 129.2 PPG this month, and gone 6-1 over this team total their past 7 home games while averaging 133.0 points. The Thunder being favored only makes the number for Utah easier to reach, so I think they stay hot and clear this total once again.
Bonus Bet (0.5 Unit) Utah Jazz +3.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars)
Utah is the best ATS team in home games this season at 16-4. Of course, they’re up against an OKC team that has the best overall ATS record in the league, so this won’t be easy. But I’m getting more than a possession’s worth of points here with a team that is on fire, particularly in their own building. The Jazz are actually 8-5 straight up as a home dog, but the 10-3 ATS record in that situational spot is good enough for me to back them tonight.
NCAA Basketball (1 Unit) Loyola Marymount @ San Francisco -10 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 10:00 PM CT on CBSSN
The Loyola Marymount schedule has been pretty weird to this point, only playing one true road game more than halfway through the season. They’re about to get a rude awakening here against one of the sneakiest good teams in the country. Marymount’s other road game was a 14-point loss at Nevada, a similarly-styled team to what they’ll see tonight in San Francisco.
But I’d argue the Dons are a far better version defensively, especially in their own building where they’re 9th in points allowed. This is the 27th-best defense by adjusted efficiency, and the Lions just don’t have the shooting to accomplish much against it. San Francisco’s true home games have seen them post a plus-25.1 average margin as they flex that defense, and I see another runaway here.
Degenerates
NCAA Basketball Utah Valley Team Total Under 63.5 @ Grand Canyon (-110; Odds via Caesars): 8:00 PM CT on ESPN+
I have a lot of respect for Grand Canyon, owner of the country’s second-longest active win streak and a team that I’ve relied on a lot in recent years. But their numbers have gotten a little inflated because of that success, so I need to back them in a different way here. When focused, this defense is really good, especially on the interior where they’re 17th nationally in block percentage.
Utah Valley is just really bad offensively this season, ranked 296th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 334th in effective field goal rate, and shooting three’s at the second-worst percentage in the country. GCU should be able to run this team out because of that ineptness offensively, especially at home where they’ve been so dominant. But the Lopes haven’t been that great against the number this year, so I’ll just count on them holding a bad Wolverines offense below this team total.
Tiny Nick is 1953-1745 ATS (+98.4 Units) on his Locks since joining Zone Coverage.
Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are the games he’s confident in. Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.